| Hawaii is the most likely target for a nuclear show of | | | | sense of history will raise the issue of Pearl Harbor, |
| strength by the North Koreans whenever they | | | | but the average continental American's day to day |
| actually manage to get their long range missile | | | | existence will not be effected. Gas prices will not go |
| program up and running - I estimate somewhere | | | | up, Americans will still be able to fly or drive |
| between 12 and 24 months from now. If they | | | | anywhere in the 48 contiguous states for holidays or |
| choose to destroy a strategic urban or industrial | | | | to visit relatives, and people can focus on what really |
| target in either China, Japan, South Korea, or say | | | | counts - the terrorist threat eminating from the |
| Alaska, they will be provoking not only possible | | | | Middle East. In fact, Bush will probably call for the |
| nuclear retaliation, but most likely prolonged | | | | immediate withdrawal of troops from the |
| conventional warfare on their borders. Not even the | | | | demilitarized zone, leaving China and Japan to worry |
| North Koreans want anything quite as messy as a | | | | about North Korea's intentions towards the South. US |
| real war. They are more interested in asserting their | | | | relations with China and Japan will probably improve. |
| autonomy, primarily with respect to the United | | | | Of course, all of this is predicated on the assumption |
| States, and in maybe reclaiming South Korea. | | | | that North Korea will actually use its nuclear missile |
| By hitting Hawaii, they leave everyone, including the | | | | capabilities once they have been established. For a |
| Americans, with no firm basis for retaliation. Certainly, | | | | long time North Korea has had an axe to grind with |
| everyone will step up to the plate to express moral | | | | the United States and Japan. More recently, the |
| outrage, but all of these governments will be spared | | | | North Koreans have observed, along with the rest of |
| the myriad problems associated with the direct | | | | the world, the rapid internal deterioration of Russia, |
| effects of the explosion or the fallout. Instead, a | | | | and the exponential growth of the Chinese economy. |
| small island in the middle of the biggest puddle on the | | | | It is likely that the Chinese will take over Siberia, and |
| planet will be wiped off the map, and for the most | | | | the North Koreans are more than a little upset with |
| part the business of life can return to normal. Global | | | | the idea of being absorbed into the new China. More |
| trade issues will not be impacted, precious oil | | | | than anything else they want to be left alone, and so |
| reserves will not be threatened, and no one will have | | | | by taking out Hawaii they send a message to all of |
| to do any cleaning up. Of course Greenpeace will be | | | | their enemies, real and imagined, that is crystal clear |
| outraged, but there will not be much they can do | | | | but for the most inoffensive at a practical level. It is |
| from a zodiac. | | | | a moral message from a source that attaches no |
| The Republicans will complain about the loss of prime | | | | moral weight to its actions. |
| vacation property, and a few good souls with a | | | | |