As the Global Economy Approaches a 2050 Peak of 9.5 Billion People, How Will This Effect Rentals?

The question of rental prices considering globalresources to support the increased numbers. This is
population trends is a difficult one. First, demand isespecially true of water and food resources. Because
local. Second, many of the costs of renting areof this population shifts to less dense areas may be
commodity based. These specific issues generallylarge and continue well past the population peak date.
cause people to keep the discussion focused on theirAll projections are that U.S. population will peak at
local area because broader global effects are difficult430 million or less. However, given this pressure, the
assess. Nevertheless, from a long term perspectivepossibility is good that U.S. population may continue to
the discussion is worthwhile.grow significantly for the remainder of the century.
For the United States and most of the developedAn end point of 500 million to 600 million is likely
world, population is either level or falling in most ofbased on relative resources, federal growth policies,
these countries. This implies less gross demandand past national immigration trends.
pressure compared to the past. However, globallyWhile this is a highly speculative discussion, the
growth to 9.5 billion from a current 6.7 billion level willargument exists that U.S. rental demand will continue
put intense pressure on many commodity productsto climb outpacing new construction activity and
such as lumber, minerals, etc. Because of this, thebeing filled by steadily increasing housing density
global effect on new construction cost will potentiallyespecially on a per square foot basis. The density
be much greater than in the past. At the same time,increase will support increasing rents, increasing rental
changes in the demographics within the U.S. suggestsoperations cost, and new housing needs while new
that trends supporting a move to greater density ishousing growth will be relatively muted.
growing at the same time. This converging trendInvestors will capitalize on these trends by purchasing
could have unexpected results. The potential that U.S.existing housing in the largest cities, lobbying for
new housing construction remains suppressed andincreased resident density, changing rental policies to
becomes even more significantly suppressed oversupport density, and increasing net rent to gain
the period is arguably quite high.increased profitability. The result should be a vibrant
Outside of demand pressure, the global populationmultifamily housing market for investor with adequate
growth is focused in many countries withoutsupply for national needs.