| ing and Finance Ministry of Commerce and the | | | | accelerating recovery. |
| Institute of International Trade and Economic | | | | Speed up economic recovery in Japan and the U.S., |
| Cooperation 28, 2003 release, "China's foreign trade | | | | the world's investment pick up, stabilize international |
| situation," Prospects of the 2004 report of the world | | | | oil prices and other favorable factors have led to the |
| economy and world trade, the overall situation. | | | | overall world economy and trade situation will be |
| Report that the overall situation continues to become | | | | further to the good. Expected annual growth rate of |
| better, and still need to focus on related issues. | | | | world economy in 2004 expected to reach 4.1%, |
| Four factors influence can not be ignored: | | | | developed and developing countries economic growth |
| First, the export tax rebate system reform on | | | | will be 2.9% and 5.0%, higher than the level this year. |
| exports can not be ignored. | | | | World trade will continue to rise, annual growth rate |
| Since January 1, 2004, China will implement a new | | | | of world merchandise trade is expected to reach |
| export tax rebate policy to reduce export tax rebate | | | | 5.4%, much higher than 2.9% in 2003. Global |
| rate will increase the cost of export enterprises, | | | | transnational direct investment will also be bottoming |
| export expansion may affect the enthusiasm, some | | | | out, there may be a moderate recovery. |
| enterprises had been in the protection of the | | | | Second, the international commodity market |
| low-profit goods may be give up the export of some | | | | conditions in 2004 warmed, the price rise. |
| labor-intensive products face intense competition may | | | | Accelerate the pace of economic recovery in the |
| be forced to withdraw from the international market, | | | | world, led by the international commodity markets is |
| thus making the total expansion of China's export | | | | expected in 2004, demand and prices will be General |
| growth and the impact of varying degrees. | | | | Improvement. Bulk agricultural products affected by |
| Meanwhile, the export tax rebate increment after | | | | supply and demand factors, prices are generally bullish |
| the implementation of the central and local share, will | | | | in 2004. Total world supply of steel products than the |
| lead to less new export tax rebates and limited | | | | total demand, but the developed countries caused by |
| inter-regional issues such as acquisition, also need | | | | economic restructuring, the continued cuts to the |
| attention. | | | | international market prices of steel products will show |
| Second, trade protectionism, the threat of China's | | | | a recovery trend. Textile market, increasing |
| export growth further increased. | | | | international competition, but countries around the |
| In recent years, a variety of trade protectionism | | | | world, the high demand for textiles is constantly |
| against China acts of the rise, the development of | | | | increasing. Mechanical and electrical products, IT |
| export trade to China pose a serious threat. | | | | products in the international market has taken the |
| Therefore, we should attach great importance to the | | | | lead to restore the economy. The international oil |
| development trend of international trade | | | | market supply and demand becomes more balanced, |
| protectionism, to take effective countermeasures to | | | | in 2004 oil prices expected to remain at 22-28 dollars |
| prevent its employment in China, foreign exchange | | | | per barrel "normal price range. |
| income and social stability of the possible negative | | | | Third, the developed countries in the ascendant |
| impact. | | | | wave of industrial restructuring and the transfer, |
| Third, WTO transition period after the response to a | | | | import and export for China to expand trade scale |
| very difficult task. | | | | and create more opportunities. |
| In 2004 after China's accession to W TO | | | | Currently, to multinational companies led by |
| commitments to fulfill the crucial year, most of the | | | | information technology represented a new round of |
| transitional measures would expire at the end of | | | | worldwide industrial restructuring and the transfer |
| 2004. | | | | process in the ascendant. With the gradual |
| From December 2003 onwards, distribution, insurance, | | | | improvement of the world economic situation, will |
| banking, transportation, telecommunications, | | | | promote the international direct investment to |
| advertising and other services, not only opening up | | | | become more active again. In recent years, China's |
| geographic expansion, and foreign stocks than | | | | investment environment has improved, especially the |
| increasing, reducing barriers to entry; in 2004 to | | | | Yangtze River, Pearl River Delta has the two |
| abolish the oil, natural rubber, some Automotive and | | | | advantages of industrial clusters, foreign capital |
| parts of 50 tariff lines of products of non-tariff | | | | continued to flow into China, the prospect of better |
| measures, tariff quotas for agricultural products and | | | | foreign direct investment-led growth of China's import |
| fertilizer will further increase capacity. This will make | | | | and export trade even open space. |
| China's accession to WTO is facing after the | | | | Fourth, China will continue to maintain rapid economic |
| response more difficult task that requires great | | | | growth, institutional policy environment tends to |
| attention caused by the parties concerned. | | | | improve. |
| Fourth, China's trade balance may have been | | | | From the current trend of economic development, |
| changed. | | | | China's economy has entered a new round of growth |
| Since the second half of 2002, as export growth | | | | cycle. In 2004, China will adhere to the principle of |
| than import growth continues to significantly cut | | | | expanding domestic demand, continue to implement |
| China's trade surplus. View from 2004, export growth | | | | the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary |
| might fall sharply, while domestic demand will remain | | | | policy, national economy will maintain a rapid growth |
| high level, long-standing trade surplus situation may be | | | | momentum is expected to more than 7% GDP |
| broken. From the Chinese macro-economic level, the | | | | growth is expected. Plenary Session on perfecting |
| trade surplus in a given period of reduced or even | | | | the socialist market economic system to a |
| deficit, on the domestic economy will not cause a | | | | comprehensive plan and work plans, a longer period in |
| significant impact, its impact on China's economic | | | | 2004 and China's economic and trade development |
| development more dependent on the structure of | | | | will have a significant positive impact. |
| imports. If the macro-control on the import structure | | | | Report said, internal and external environment does |
| of misconduct, may impact certain domestic | | | | not occur if major changes, the initial estimated, in |
| industries vulnerable. Therefore, the need to give full | | | | 2004 China's foreign trade growth Rengqiang stable |
| attention to the structure of imports and import of | | | | Di, but considering the high base year, import and |
| changes in trend. | | | | export, the export tax rebate rate down Deng |
| Will Play a Positive Role in Promoting the Four | | | | factors, import and export Maoyitebie is export |
| First of all, developments in major economies, the | | | | growth will likely come down significantly. |
| current global economy is increasingly clear signs of | | | | |