India-China -Russia Troika: Is It Possible?

Of late, a talk of suspicion and many eyebrows haveSino-Indian relationship is the border dispute which still
been raised on the soon called India -China -Russianeeds to be solved .However both the countries
Troika at the international level among theagree that it should be solved respecting the
international community. Even though all the threesentiments of both the countries .
countries have vehemently denied this there seemsWith India having age old historic ties with Russia
to be some element of truth behind this. If this finallybased on solid foundation the emergence of warmer
happens it would change the contours of theties with China means a lot for this region . Already
geo-political-strategic positioning and relationship ofChina and Russia have solved their age-old border
the Asia-Pacific countries . It might well give sleeplessdisputes amicably with mutual respect and trust for
nights to the West and the United States of Americaeach other . Sino -Russian trade is quite robust and is
in relation to its strategic and foreign policy with theincreasing steadfastly . In the year 2003-04 the
Asia-Pacific .annual trade between China and Russia was to the
India 's relationship with China has taken serious U-tuned of US $ 5 Billion which is a very good share in
Turn in the last couple of years. With the badany country's annual trade . With India having her
memories of the 1962 war still in mind a thing like thismaximum defense and military trade with Russia with
to happen itself is significant. The ice was brokenRussia contributing 70 percent of India's defense
during the visit of the former late Prime Minister ofneeds greater co operation between the three
India Rajeev Gandhi when he visited China followedcountries would assume great significance in future if
by high delegations from China visiting India.it really works out
Coming of the NDA regime further warmed thisRussia's inability to impede the eastward expansion of
relationship .The visit of the former Prime MinisterNATO and its frustration over NATO's unilateral
Atal Bihari Vajpayee into that country and his talksmilitary action in Kosovo have forced Moscow to
with the Chinese Head and the joint statementseek closer strategic understanding with China and
issued there after solidified this relationship further.India. Yevgeny Primakov of Russia was the first
This got quite reflected in the total BI-lateral trade ofperson to talk about a "strategic triangle" among
both the countries. The latest statistics and annualRussia, China, and India which might still take time to
reports of both the countries on trade reflect this.materialize but it cannot be ruled out .It is a fact that
Quotes of brief figures would prove this.each of these states is involved in a somewhat
The India-China bilateral trade had set a new recordsimilar dynamics. Each is consolidating its relationship
with total trade touching US$13.6 billion in 2004 andwith the others, while also expanding its relations with
India enjoying a comfortable trade surplus of $1.75the United States. In terms of strategic payoffs, this
billion, the latest Chinese customs statistics indicatespartnership will yield them, at a minimum, enhanced
that India-China annual trade for 2004 increased 79%benefits of bilateral and trilateral cooperation with
over the total trade volume of 2003, the customseach other and, at a maximum, it can serve to
figures showed.neutralize the US influence in the Asia -pacific Region .
Analysts argue the total trade figure achieved duringThis potential partnership could be a blueprint for the
2004 was $3.6 billion more than expected at thenext Cold War and poses a threat that could affect
beginning of the year, which indicates the hugethe lives of everyone in the United States in a
potential that exists between the two fastestsignificant way and the United States of America is
growing economies. During the January-Decemberquite itchy about the unfolding Tri-lateral tie .
period of 2004, Indian exports to China grew byDuring President Putin's visit in December 2003 a
80.5% to reach $7.68 billion. Meanwhile, India's importsRussian defense deal of a multi billion US dollars was
from China registered 77.2% year-on-year growth tosigned under which IL-78 Flight Refueling Aircrafts,
hit $5.93 billion. The trade balance for the year stoodAircraft Carrier Admiral Gorshkov, IL-78 FRAs would
in India's favor at $1.75 billion.be given to India by Russia . Under this agreement
The monthly trade volume recorded a yearly high ofRussia would also sell to India the MiG-29K fighter
$1.44 billion, surpassing November's high of $1.32 billion.Aircrafts for the aircraft carrier besides the sale and
Indian exports to China in December touched $744joint production of submarines and frigates .With such
million and imports for the month reached $697 millionwarm ties the emergence of a Troika cannot be
with no significant change in the composition of theruled out .
bilateral trade basket. Indian exports to China wereA Trilateral meeting of the Heads of the three
dominated by iron ore.countries on the sidelines of the United Nation general
With such huge economic benefits it is quite naturalassembly session in 2003 had raised a lot of heart
for both the countries to move ahead and it is withburns among several western nations including the
this rationale behind that both the countries are tryingUnited States . Even though the then External Affairs
to expand its relationship further in a multi facetedMinister of India had brushed this aside as nothing but
manner. Change of regime in Delhi after 2004 hasn'twanted assumptions saying the meeting had taken
shifted the focus of the new UPA governmentplace to discuss global issues and cross-border
towards China infact it has expanded further. Theterrorism concerning the three countries. The
recent Defense Pact between the two countriesclarification was made during the question hour while
proves this further In his recent five days visit toreplying to the supplementaries. The minister said,
China the Indian defense minister Prang Mukherjee"this kind of meeting took 14 years to take place and
signed this historic pact Many eyebrows were raisedno country was mentioned by name during the
in the international circles regarding this and about itsinformal meeting, though the issue of terrorism in
aims and objectives. Whether this pact was aimed atgeneral figured in the discussions." He further said
any third country or not though both the countries"otherwise, it would have given the impression that
have brushed aside such rumors. But such possibilitieswe (India, Russia and China) are forming a group."
cannot be ruled out entirelyThe Minister had also said then "The Foreign Ministers
The signing of the memorandum of understandingof India, Russia and China agreed to meet informally
(MOU) will be beneficial to the growth of China-Indiain the same format and in this informal meeting we
military relations and "will not target any thirddid not bring up bilateral issues and only trilateral
country", said Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchaoissues were discussed .The meeting also discussed
at a press conference . The pact was signed by theglobalization,"
visiting Indian Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee andThe indirect acknowledgement of the Minister of
his Chinese counterpart Gen. Cao Gangchuan. Thediscussing trilateral issues and issues of global concern
pact "provides a formal basis for the defense andreflects this unfolding axis between the Trio . With
military exchanges that have been taking placeChina and Russia cooperating on the Railway links and
between the two countries in the last few years".Oil Pipe line issue through Central Asia connecting the
Cao and Mukherjee held talks, pledging to deepenCaspian Sea with the Middle East and Europe . Russia
military relations further . China has pledged to stephas also shown keen interest on the Pipeline issue of
up strategic and cooperative relations with India inIndia with Iran and Central Asia .Chances of the three
2006, a year of friendship between the twocountries joining hands on such common issues of
countries, said the Chinese Foreign Minister Limutual interest in future cannot be ruled out .
Zhaoxing during a meeting with Mukherjee. Under theAmerican presence in Central Asia ,Afghanistan and in
agreement "Military exchanges will be an importantthe former Soviet Republics like Georgia ,Ukraine etc
part of bilateral ties," Mr Liu said.has hastened the process further . The way things
Regarding the agreement the Indian Defense ministryare unfolding in Central Asia the official
had to say this "Reinforcement of mutual trust andacknowledgement of the a Troika or the official
exchanges will be beneficial for the development offormation of it in near future cannot be ruled out .
all-round cooperation partnership in the two countries.Such a Troika is also required for this region looking
the agreement would institutionalize training, exercisesinto its strategic and economic location .
and other contacts between the armed forces ofInvolvement and the special interest shown by the
the two countries. The agreement would aim towestern powers specially the United states of
develop a 'strategic and cooperative partnership forAmerica after the coming of the WTO and
peace and prosperity between India and China', andglobalization in this region makes the necessity for
enhance trust between their two militaries" The Chinathe formation of such a power grouping all the more
Daily reported the agreement could become anvital as this can neutralize the power domination of
instrument for a regular and sustained dialoguethe West and the USA in this region as well as keep
between Beijing and New Delhi on defense issuesthis region free from any kind of American
During his visit Mr Mukherjee met Premier Wen Jiabaodomination which is of vital importance for the
. He also visited military bases in Beijing and Shanghaihealthy development of Asia as a whole and for its
and the Beijing Aerospace Command and Controloverall security as outside presence in this area is not
Center. However the thorn to the warmingin its interest.